Rapid Climate Change
International Science Conference


for the Media

NEW: Conference Summary (PDF)

Conference Themes



Full presentations


24 - 27 October 2006. Birmingham, U.K.

Preliminary Programme

Conference Overview

The conference lasts for four days, starting on Tuesday 24 October and finishing on Friday 27th October. Oral and poster sessions are organised around four themes. Related panel discussions close days 2 and 3.
Prior to the conference the CLIVAR/PAGES Intersection Panel are organising a workshop on the 8.2 ka event on Monday 23 October.

Tuesday 24th October

11:00 Registration
14:00 Conference opening and welcome
Lloyd Keigwin, Chair, RAPID Scientific Steering Committee
14:10 Theme 2: What does the past tell us about rapid climate change?
Chair: Nick McCave

Eric Wolff: Rapid climate changes have occurred in the past: 8.2k and Dansgaard-Oeschger events in ice core and other palaeorecords.   Invited talk Abstract

Bette Otto-Bliesner: Freshwater in the North Atlantic and rapid climate change: modelling of the 8.2 ka and Heinrich events   Invited talk

15:30 Coffee
16:00 Theme 2 continues
P. Spence, A. Weaver: The influence of mesoscale eddies and boundary currents on surface freshwater forcings used to drive MOC variations. Abstract
T. Kleinen, T. Osborn, K. Briffa: Investigation into influences on Little Ice Age climate. Abstract
L.P. Jonkers, M.A. Prins, G.-J. Weltje, A. Ganopolski, G.-J. A. Brummer: Hysteresis response of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation to freshwater perturbation: a data model comparison. Abstract
B.A.A. Hoogakker, I.N. McCave, C. Hillaire-Marcel: Antiphase Nordic Sea overflows in the Holocene North Atlantic. Abstract
J. Flückiger, R. Knutti, J.W.C. White, T. Popp: Modeled seasonality and timing of abrupt climate events during the last glacial epoch. Abstract
M.R. Chapman, E. Farmer, K.R. Miller, J.E. Andrews: Holocene Variability In The Subpolar North Atlantic. Abstract
18:00 Ice breaker: Wine reception at Holiday Inn

Wednesday 25th October

09:00 Conference addresses
Prof. Alan Thorpe , Head of the Natural Environment Research Council
Sir David King, UK Government Chief Scientific Adviser
09:40 Theme 1: Is the MOC changing?
Chair: Alan Thorpe

Harry Bryden: Variability in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 25°N,   Invited talk Abstract

10:20 Coffee
Press interview opportunities
10:50 Theme 1 continues
Chair: Lisa Beal

Friedrich Schott: The Atlantic MOC during the past decade: a northern perspective.   Invited talk Abstract

B. Hansen, S. Østerhus, D. Quadfasel: Faroe Bank Channel overflow 1995 - 2005. Abstract
S.J. Leadbetter, R.G. Williams, V. Roussenov, M.S. Lozier: Mechanisms of North Atlantic ocean heat content change over the last 50 years. Abstract
M. O. Baringer: Heat transport variations in the subtropical North Atlantic. Abstract
K.P. Boessenkool, I.R. Hall, H. Elderfield, I. Yashayaev: North Atlantic climate and deep-ocean flow during the last 200 years. Abstract
S. Østerhus, The MOEN Consortium: Meridional Overturning Exchange with the Nordic Seas. Abstract
13:10 Lunch
14:00 Themes 1 and 2 poster presentations
Coffee will be available during the poster session
List of Theme 1 posters     List of Theme 2 posters
16:30 Panel discussion
How have paleo studies helped us to improve models and predictions of RCC?
Moderator: Paul Valdez
17:30 RAPID update
Brief overview of recent developments in the NERC RAPID programme
Meric Srokosz (Science Co-ordinator) and Robin McCandliss (Data Manager)
20:00 Conference Dinner - Venue: Holiday Inn
David Buckland: The art of climate change

Thursday 26th October

09:00 Theme 3: THC, climate and weather in the 21st century
Chair: Martin Visbeck

Richard Wood: Predicting the future of the MOC.   Invited talk

Henk Dijkstra: The stability of the ocean's meridional overturning circulation: a model hierarchy perspective.   Invited talk   Abstract

10:20 Coffee
10:50 Theme 3 continues
Chair: Martin Visbeck

Daniela Jacob: Impacts of changes in MOC on the European climate.   Invited talk   Abstract

T. Fichefet, E. Driesschaert, H. Goosse, P. Huybrechts, I. Janssens, A. Mouchet, G. Munhoven, V. Brovkin, S.L. Weber: Modeling the interactions between the Greenland ice sheet and climate during the next millennia. Abstract
K. Zickfeld, A.J. Weaver, M. Eby: Effects of potential changes in the thermohaline circulation on the global carbon cycle. Abstract
T.J. Woollings, B.J. Hoskins, M. Blackburn: Using a Regional Climate Model to investigate the impact of climate change on North Atlantic and European climate regimes. Abstract
L. Czeschel, D.P. Marshall, H.L. Johnson: Sensitivity of the meridional overturning circulationat 25°N to local and remote forcing. Abstract
J.H. Jungclaus, H. Haak, M. Esch, E. Roeckner, L. Mu, J. Marotzke: Will Greenland melting halt the Thermohaline Circulation? Abstract
13:10 Lunch
14:00 Themes 3 and 4 poster presentations
Coffee will be available during the poster session
List of Theme 3 posters     List of Theme 4 posters     Other posters
16:30 Panel discussion
What does society want to know about Rapid Climate Change?
Moderator: Rowan Sutton

Friday 27th October

09:00 Theme 3 continues
Chair: Julia Slingo

S. S. Drijfhout, W. Hazeleger: Detecting Atlantic MOC changes in an ensemble of climate change simulations. Abstract
B. W. Dong, R. T. Sutton: Enhancement of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability by a weakened Atlantic Thermohaline circulation in a coupled GCM. Abstract
P.G. Challenor, D. McNeall: The Probability of Rapid Climate Change in an Intermediate Complexity Climate Model. Abstract
H.L. Johnson, D.P. Marshall, D. Sproson: Reconciling theories of a mechanically driven meridional overturning circulation with the existence of thermohaline multiple equilibria. Abstract
10:20 Coffee
10:40 Theme 4: Outlook and challenges
Chair: Julia Slingo

Jonathan Rougier: How can probability be used to quantify uncertainty in climate predictions?   Invited talk Abstract

Peter Haugan:Some polar mechanisms of rapid climate change.   Invited talk

Jochem Marotzke:From MOC observations to climate predictions?   Invited talk

12:40 Closing notes
13:00 Lunch
14:00 Conference close

Above: Heather Ackroyd working on 'Ice lens" during the Cape Farwell expedition to Svalbard in March 2005.

Art Exhibition
An art exhibition by artists taking part in the Cape Farewell Arctic expeditions will be held in the conference venue during the conference.



Ice breaker reception at Holiday Inn, Birmingham

Conference Dinner.
After Dinner Speaker: David Buckland, Cape Farewell: "The Art of Climate Change".




How have paleo studies helped us to improve models and predictions of rapid climate change?


What does society want to know about rapid climate change?

PAGES/CLIVAR Intersection Workshop
The 8.2 ka Event, October 23.

The Pages/Clivar panel is a joint venture between the PAGES and CLIVAR pro-grammes and is set up to better integrate the paleoclimate and climate dynamics communities. Attached to the RAPID Inter-national Meeting the panel will organise a one-day workshop on the 8.2 ka event.

The workshop will synthesise our present knowledge about the event, its causes, mechanisms, impacts and relevance for current understanding of the stability of the Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC).

The workshop will comprise modellers and observationalists working on the 8.2 event or on various aspects of MOC.

This workshhop is by invitation only. If you wish to attend please contact the co-ordinator, Eystein Jansen,   E-mail: Eystein.Jansen@geo.uib.no.