Related Papers
Messori (2015): On local and zonal pulses of atmospheric heat transport in reanalysis data Local and Zonal Pulses of Atmospheric Heat Transport. doi:10.1002/qj.2529
Williamson et.al. (2014): Identifying and removing structural biases in climate models with history matching. doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2378-z. Williamson_et_al_StructErrorPaper.pdf
Williamson et.al. (2013): History matching for the quantification and reduction of parametric uncertainty in climate model projections. doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1896-4
Williamson et.al. (2012): Identifying and removing structural biases in climate models with history matching. Copy of Tech. Report
Challenor (2012): Using Emulators to Estimate Uncertainty in Complex Models
Williamson et.al. (2012): Fast Linked Analyses for Scenario based Hierarchies. doi:10.1111/j.1467-9876.2012.01042.x
Jackson (2011): The sensitivity of the Meridional Overturning Circulation to modelling uncertainty in a perturbed physics ensemble without flux adjustment. doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1110-5
RAPIT: Risk Assessment, Probability and Impacts Team
PI: Peter Challenor, NOC, Southampton.
RAPIT is looking at the problem of estimating the risk of the collapse of the overturning circulation. Using modern
statistical methods for the analysis of complex numerical models, large ensembles of two Atmosphere Ocean General Circulation Models (HADCM3 and CHIME) will be analysed.
Studies of large excursions of the strength of the overturning in existing control runs will be used to guide our choice of metrics and diagnostics.
To produce the large number of model runs that are required for the statistical analysis, the
climateprediction.net system is used.
Consortium members: National Oceanography Centre, British Antarctic Survey, Universty of Reading, Univerity of Oxford, Durham University, Met-Office, LSE, Imperial College.
Link to Project Home Page
Related Links
RAPID-WATCH Science Plan
Scientific background, strategic context, objectives,
RAPID-WATCH Work Plan
Deliverables, collaborations, knowledge exchange, data management, programme management, time table.
Project Home Pages
RAPID MOC
Monitoring the Meridional overturning circulation at 26°N
RAPID WAVE
Monitoring the variability of the Deep Western Boundary Current
VALOR
The Value of the RAPID array for decadal climate predictions
RAPIT
RAPID Risk Assessment, Probability and Impacts Team
RAPID THC MIP
Understanding uncertainty in simulations of THC-related climate change: Model Intercomparison Project
