RAPID Risk Assessment, Probability and Impacts Team

Publications

RAPIT team publications

Most recent papers:

Messori, G. and A. Czaja (2015): On local and zonal pulses of atmospheric heat transport in reanalysis data Local and Zonal Pulses of Atmospheric Heat Transport, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Part B, 141, 2376-2389.  doi:10.1002/qj.2529

Williamson, D., Blaker, A. T., Hampton, C. Salter, J. (2014): Identifying and removing structural biases in climate models with history matching, Climate Dynamics, 2014.  doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2378-z  Williamson_et_al_StructErrorPaper.pdf

Williamson, D., Goldstein, M., Allison, L., Blaker, A. T., Challenor, P., Jackson, L. (2013): History matching for the quantification and reduction of parametric uncertainty in climate model projections, Climate Dynamics, 41, 1703-1729.  doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1896-4

Williamson, D., Blaker, A. T., Arnfield, M., Hampton, C., Salter, J. (2012): Identifying and removing structural biases in climate models with history matching, University of Exeter Technical Report, 21pp.  Copy of Tech. Report

All papers in alphabetical order:

Challenor, P. (2011): Designing a Computer Experiment that Involves Switches, Journal of Statistical Theory and Practice, 5(1): 47-57. Link to on-line journal

Challenor, P. G., Hankin, R. K. S., Marsh, R. (2006): Towards the probability of rapid climate change, In Schellnhuber, H.J., W. Cramer, N. Nakicenovic, T. Wigley, and G. Yohe (Eds.) Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change.: Cambridge University Press. PDF copy of paper

Challenor, P.G (2012): Using Emulators to Estimate Uncertainty in Complex Models, pp151-164 in Uncertainty Quantification in Scientific Computing, Eds A.M Dienstrey and R.F Boisvert, IFIP AICT 377, Springer

Challenor, P.G. (2007): The probability of rapid climate change, Significance, 4: 60-62. DOI: 10.1111/j.1740-9713.2007.00226.x.

Hawkins, E., Smith, Allison, L., Woollings, T., Gregory, J., Pohlmann, R., de Cuevas, B. (2011): Bistability of the Atlantic overturning circulation in a GCM and links to ocean freshwater transport, Geophysical Research Letters, 38: L10605. DOI: 10.1029/2011GL048997.

Jackson, L., M. Vellinga and G. Harris (2011): The sensitivity of the Meridional Overturning Circulation to modelling uncertainty in a perturbed physics ensemble without flux adjustment, Climate Dynamics. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-011-1110-5.

Messori, G. and A. Czaja (2015): On local and zonal pulses of atmospheric heat transport in reanalysis data Local and Zonal Pulses of Atmospheric Heat Transport, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Part B, 141: 2376-2389. DOI: 10.1002/qj.2529.

Williamson, D., Blaker, A. T., Arnfield, M., Hampton, C., Salter, J. (2012): Identifying and removing structural biases in climate models with history matching, University of Exeter Technical Report: 21pp. Copy of Tech. Report

Williamson, D., Blaker, A. T., Hampton, C. Salter, J. (2014): Identifying and removing structural biases in climate models with history matching, Climate Dynamics, 2014. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-014-2378-z.. Williamson_et_al_StructErrorPaper.pdf

Williamson, D., Goldstein, M., Allison, L., Blaker, A. T., Challenor, P., Jackson, L. (2013): History matching for the quantification and reduction of parametric uncertainty in climate model projections, Climate Dynamics, 41: 1703-1729. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-013-1896-4.

Williamson, D., Goldstein, M., Blaker, A. T. (2012): Fast Linked Analyses for Scenario based Hierarchies, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C, 61: 5. DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9876.2012.01042.x.

Wu, P., Jackson, L., Pardaens, A. and Schaller, N. (2011): Extended warming of the northern high latitudes due to an overshoot of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, Geophysical Research Letters, 38: L24704. DOI: 10.1029/2011GL049998.

Other publications relevant to RAPIT

Most recent papers:

Tokmakian, R., and P. Challenor (2014): Uncertainty in Modeled Upper Ocean Heat Content Change., Climate Dynamics, 42, 1-20.  doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1709-9

Tokmakian, R., P. Challenor, and I Andrianakis (2012): On the Use of Emulators with Extreme and Highly Nonlinear Geophysical Simulators., Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, 29 (11), 1704-1715.  doi:10.1175/JTECHD-11-00110.1

Challenor, P., McNeall, D., Gattiker, J. (2010): Assessing the probability of rare climate events, In, O\'Hagan, Anthony and West, Mike (eds.) The Oxford Handbook of Applied Bayesian Analysis, Oxford University Press, 403-430.  ukcatalogue.oup.com/product/9780199548903.do

Goldstein, M., Rougier, J. C. (2009): Reified Bayesian Modelling and Inference for Physical Systems, Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference, 139(3), 1221-1239.  doi:10.1016/j.jspi.2008.07.019

All papers in alphabetical order:

Challenor, P., McNeall, D., Gattiker, J. (2010): Assessing the probability of rare climate events, In, O\'Hagan, Anthony and West, Mike (eds.) The Oxford Handbook of Applied Bayesian Analysis, Oxford University Press: 403-430. ukcatalogue.oup.com/product/9780199548903.do

Challenor, P.G. (2009): Comments by P.Challenor on Goldstein and Rougier, Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference, 139 (3): 1248-1248. DOI: 10.1016/j.jspi.2008.08.012.

Goldstein, M., Rougier, J. C (2005): Bayes Linear Calibrated Prediction for Complex Systems, Journal of the American Statistical Association. Pre-print

Goldstein, M., Rougier, J. C. (2005): Probabilistic formulations for transferring inferences from mathematical models to physical systems, SIAM Journal on Scientific Computing, 26: 467-487. DOI: 10.1137/S106482750342670X.

Goldstein, M., Rougier, J. C. (2009): Reified Bayesian Modelling and Inference for Physical Systems, Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference, 139(3): 1221-1239. DOI: 10.1016/j.jspi.2008.07.019.

Rougier, J. C (2005): Probabilistic Inference for Future Climate Using an Ensemble of Simulator Evaluations, Climatic Change. www.maths.dur.ac.uk/stats/people/jcr/CCrevisionA4.pdf

Tokmakian, R., P. Challenor, and I Andrianakis (2012): On the Use of Emulators with Extreme and Highly Nonlinear Geophysical Simulators., Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, 29 (11): 1704-1715. DOI: 10.1175/JTECHD-11-00110.1.

Tokmakian, R., and P. Challenor (2014): Uncertainty in Modeled Upper Ocean Heat Content Change., Climate Dynamics, 42: 1-20. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-013-1709-9.