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Related Publications

The papers listed below are of interest to the RAPID community, published by RAPID researchers or their associates, but are not based on work carried out as part of the RAPID programme. A list of publications of research funded in RAPID or RAPID-WATCH can be found HERE.

Most recent papers:

Johnson, H.L., Paola. Cessi, D.P. Marshall, F. Schloesser M.A. Spall (2019): Recent contributions of theory to our understanding of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, JGR Oceansdoi:10.1029/2019JC015330

Little, C.M., A. Hu, C.W. Hughes, G.D. McCarthy, C.G. Piecuch, R.M. Ponte, M.D. Thomas (2019): The Relationship between United States East Coast Sea Level and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: a Review, JGR Oceansdoi:10.1029/2019JC015152

Zhang, R., Sutton, R., Danabasoglu, G., Kwon, Y.‐O., Marsh, R., Yeager, S.G., Amrhein, D.E., Little, C.M. (2019): A Review of the Role of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in Atlantic Multidecadal Variability and Associated Climate Impacts, Reviews of Geophysics, 57 (2), 316-375.  doi:10.1029/2019RG000644

All papers in alphabetical order

A   B   C   D   E   F   G   H   I   J   K   L   M   N   O   P   Q   R   S   T   U   V   W   X   Y   Z  


Austin, W. E. N., Telford, R. J., Ninnemann, U. S., Brown, L., Wilson, L. J., Small, D. P., Bryant, C. L. (2011): North Atlantic reservoir ages linked to high Younger Dryas atmospheric radiocarbon concentrations, Global and Planetary Change, 79: 226-233. DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2011.06.011.


Böning, C.W. E. Behrens, A. Biastoch, K. Getzlaff, and J.L. Bamber (2016): Emerging impact of Greenland meltwater on deepwater formation in the North Atlantic Ocean, Nature Geoscience, 9: 523-527. DOI: 10.1038/ngeo2740.

Baker, A., Wilson, R., Fairchild, I.J., Franke, J., Spötl, C., Mattey, D., Trouet, V., Fuller, L. (2011): High resolution δ18O and δ13C records from an annually laminated Scottish stalagmite and relationship with last millennium climate, Global and Planetary Change, 79: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2010.12.007

Balmaseda, M. A., Smith, G. C., Haines, K., Anderson, D., Palmer, T. N., and Vidard, A. (2007): Historical reconstruction of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation from the ECMWF operational ocean reanalysis, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34(23). DOI: 10.1029/2007GL031645.

Balmaseda, M.A., Mogensen, K., Weaver, A. (2013): Evaluation of the ECMWF Ocean Reanalysis ORAS4, Quaterly Journal Roy. Met. Soc. A, 139: 1132-1161. DOI: 10.1002/qj.2063.

Baringer, M. O. and Larsen, J. C. (2001): Sixteen years of Florida Current Transport at 27°N, Geophysical Research Letters, 28(16): 3179-3182. DOI: doi: 10.1029/2001GL013246.

Bigg, G. R., Levine, R. C., Green, C. L. (2011): Modelling abrupt glacial North Atlantic freshening: Rates of change and their implications for Heinrich events, Global and Planetary Change, 79: 176-192. DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2010.11.001.

Bower, A., Lozier, S., Biastoch, A.,Drouin, K., Foukal, N., Furey, H., Lankhorst, M., Rühs, S., Zou, S. (2019): Lagrangian views of the pathways of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, JGR Oceans, 124. DOI: 10.1029/2019JC015014.


Carton, J.A. and Hakkinen, S. (2011): Climate and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, Deep Sea Research II Special Issue, 58 (17-18): 1741-1944 (September 2011)

Carton, J.A., Cunningham, S.A., FraJka-Williams,E., Kwon, Y.O., Marshall,D., Msadek, R. (2014): The Atlantic Overturning Circulation: More Evidence of Variability and Links to Climate, Summary of the 2013 U.S. AMOC – U.K. RAPID International Science Meeting, Am.Met.Soc, BAMS August 2014: 163-166. Meeting Summary

Challenor, P., McNeall, D., Gattiker, J. (2010): Assessing the probability of rare climate events, In, O\'Hagan, Anthony and West, Mike (eds.) The Oxford Handbook of Applied Bayesian Analysis, Oxford University Press: 403-430. ukcatalogue.oup.com/product/9780199548903.do

Challenor, P.G. (2009): Comments by P.Challenor on Goldstein and Rougier, Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference, 139 (3): 1248-1248. DOI: 10.1016/j.jspi.2008.08.012.


Fischer, J., J. Karstensen, R. Zantopp, M. Visbeck, A. Biastoch, E. Behrens, C.W. Böning, D. Quadfasel, K. Jochumsen, H.Valdimarsson' S.Jonsson, S.Bacon, N.P. Holliday, S. Dye, M. Rhein, C. Mertense (2015): Intra-seasonal variability of the DWBC in the western subpolar North Atlantic, Progress in Oceanography, 132: 233-249. DOI: 10.1016/j.pocean.2014.04.002.


Gary, S.F.; Cunningham, S.A.; Johnson, C.; Houpert, L.; Holliday, N.P.; Behrens, E.; Biastoch, A.; Böning, C.W. (2018): Seasonal cycles of oceanic transports in the eastern subpolar North Atlantic, JGR, Oceans, 123(2): 1471-1484. DOI: 10.1002/2017JC013350.

Goddard, P.B., Yin, J., Griffies, S.M., Zhang, S. (2015): An extreme event of sea-level rise along the Northeast coast of North America in 2009-2010, Nature Communication. DOI: 10.1038/ncomms7346.

Goldstein, M., Rougier, J. C (2005): Bayes Linear Calibrated Prediction for Complex Systems, Journal of the American Statistical Association. Pre-print

Goldstein, M., Rougier, J. C (2005): Reified Bayesian Modelling and Inference for Physical Systems, Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference. Pre-print

Goldstein, M., Rougier, J. C. (2005): Probabilistic formulations for transferring inferences from mathematical models to physical systems, SIAM Journal on Scientific Computing, 26: 467-487. DOI: 10.1137/S106482750342670X.

Goldstein, M., Rougier, J. C. (2009): Reified Bayesian Modelling and Inference for Physical Systems, Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference, 139(3): 1221-1239. DOI: 10.1016/j.jspi.2008.07.019.

Gulev, S.K. Latif, M. (2015): Ocean science: The origins of a climate oscillation, Nature, 521: 428-430. DOI: 10.1038/521428a.


Hall, I.R., Evans, H.K., Thornalley, D.J.R. (2011): Deep water flow speed and surface ocean changes in the subtropical North Atlantic during the last deglaciation, Global and Planetary Change, 79: 255-263. DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2010.12.001.

Hansen, B., K. M. H. Larsen, H. Hatun, and S. Österhus (A stable Faroe Bank Channel overflow 1995-2015): Ocean Science, 12, 1205-1220: 10.5194/os-12-1205-2016.

Hawkins, E., Sutton, R. (2010): The potential to narrow uncertainty in projections of regional precipitation change, Climate Dynamics, in press. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-010-0810-6.

Houpert, L., Inall,M.E., Dumont,E., Gary,S., Johnson, C., Porter, M., Johns, W.E., Cunningham, S.A. (2018): Structure and Transport of the North Atlantic Current in the Eastern Subpolar Gyre From Sustained Glider Observations, JGR. DOI: 10.1029/2018JC014162.


Johnson, H.L., Paola. Cessi, D.P. Marshall, F. Schloesser M.A. Spall (2019): Recent contributions of theory to our understanding of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, JGR Oceans. DOI: 10.1029/2019JC015330.

Jung, S.J.A., Kroon, D. (2011): Quantifying rates of change in ocean conditions with implications for timing of sea level change, Global and Planetary Change, 79: 204-213. DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2010.11.004.


Knutti, R., Meehl, G.A., Allen, M. R., Stainforth, D. A. (2006): Constraining Climate Sensitivity from the Seasonal Cycle in Surface Temperature, Journal of Climate, 19: 4224-4233. DOI: 10.1175/JCLI3865.1.


Landerer, F.W., Wiese, D.N., Bentel, K., Boening, C., Watkins, M.M. (2015): North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation variations from GRACE ocean bottom pressure anomalies, GRL, 42(19): 8114-8121. DOI: 10.1002/2015GL065730.

Lavender, K. L., Owens, W. B., Davis, R. E. (2005): The mid-depth circulation of the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean as measured by subsurface floats, Deep Sea Research, 52: 767-785. DOI: 10.1016/j.dsr.2004.12.007.

Lenton, T.L., Held, H., Kriegler, E., Hall, J.W., Lucht, W., Rahmstorf, S., Schellnhuber, H.J. (2008): Tipping elements in the Earth's climate system, Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA, 105 (6): 1786-1793. DOI: 10.1073/pnas.0705414105.

Little, C.M., A. Hu, C.W. Hughes, G.D. McCarthy, C.G. Piecuch, R.M. Ponte, M.D. Thomas (2019): The Relationship between United States East Coast Sea Level and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: a Review, JGR Oceans. DOI: 10.1029/2019JC015152.

Longworth, H. R., Bryden, H. L., Baringer, M. O. (2011): Historical variability in Atlantic meridional baroclinic transport at 26.5°N from boundary dynamic height observations, Deep-Sea Research II, 58 (17-18): 1754-1767. DOI: doi:10.1016/j.dsr2.2010.10.057.

Lozier, M.S.; Bacon, S.; Bower, A.S.; Cunningham, S.A.; de Jong, M.F.; de Steur, L.; deYoung, B.; Fischer, J.; Gary, S.F; Greenan, B.J.W.; Heimbach, P.; Holliday, N.P.; Houpert, L.; Inall, M.E.; Johns, W.E.; Johnson, H.L.; Karstensen, J.; Li, F.; Lin, X.; Mackay, N.; Marshall, D.P.; Mercier, H.; Myers, P.G.; Pickart, R.S.; Pillar, H.R.; Straneo, F.; Thierry, V.; Weller, Robert A.; Williams, R.G.; Wilson, C.; Yang, J.; Zhao, J.; Zika, J.D. (2017): Overturning in the Subpolar North Atlantic Program: a new international ocean observing system, Bul. Am. Met. Soc., 98(4): 737-752. DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0057.1.


Mackay, N., Wilson, C., Zika, J. & Holliday, N.P. (2018): A Regional Thermohaline Inverse Method for Estimating Circulation and Mixing in the Arctic and Subpolar North Atlantic, Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, 35 (12): 2383-2403. DOI: 0.1175/JTECH-D-17-0198.1.

Maidens, A., A. Arribas, A.A. Scaife, C. MacLachlan, D. Peterson, J. Knight (2013): The Influence of Surface Forcings on Prediction of the North Atlantic Oscillation Regime of Winter 2010/11, Monthly Weather Review, 41 (11): 3801-3813. DOI: 10.1175/MWR-D-13-00033.1.

Marsh, R., Haigh, I.D., Cunningham, S.A., Inall, M.E., Porter, M., and Moat, B.I. (Large-scale forcing of the European Slope Current and associated inflows to the North Sea): Ocean Sci., 13, 315-335: 10.5194/os-13-315-2017.

McDermott, F., Atkinson, T.C., Fairchild, I.J., Baldini, L.M., Mattey, D.P. (2011): A first evaluation of the spatial gradients in δ18O recorded by European Holocene speleothems, Global and Planetary Change, 79: 275-287. DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2011.01.005.

McDonagh, E. L., McLeod, P., King, B. A. Bryden, H. L., Torres Valdes, S. (2010): Circulation, heat and freshwater transport at 36°N in the Atlantic, Journal of Physical Oceanography, 40: 2661-2678. DOI: 10.1175/2010JPO4176.1.

Mercier, H., P. Lherminier, A. Sarafanov, F. Gaillard, N. Daniault, D. Desbruyeres, A. Falina, B. Ferron, T. Huck, V. Thierry (2015): Variability of the meridional overturning circulation at the Greenland-Portugal Ovide section from 1993 to 2010, Prog. Oceanogr, 132: 250-261. DOI: 10.1016/j.pocean.2013.11.001.

Moffa‐Sánchez, P., Moreno‐Chamarro,E., Reynolds, D. J., Ortega, P.,Cunningham, L., Swingedouw, D., Amrhein, D.E., Halfar, J., Jonkers, L., Jungclaus, J.H., Perner, K., Wanamaker, A., Yeager, S. (2019): Variability in the northernNorth Atlantic and Arctic Oceansacross the last two millennia: A review., Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology, 34. DOI: 10.1029/2018PA003508.


OSNAP (2016): Measuring the Meridional Overturning Circulation from the OSNAP Array, OSNAP Technical Report, July 2016. https://duke.app.box.com/v/osnap-technical-report


Persechino, A., Marsh, R., Sinha, B., Megann, A. P., Blaker, A. T., New, A. L. (2012): Decadal-timescale changes of the Atlantic overturning circulation and climate in a coupled climate model with a hybrid-coordinate ocean component, Climate Dynamics, 39 (3-4): 1021-1042. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-012-1432-y.

Pillar, H., P. Heimbach, H. Johnson, and D. Marshall (2016): Dynamical attribution of recent variability in Atlantic overturning, J. Climate, 29: 3339-3352. DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0727.1.


Rahmstorf, S., Box, J., Feulner, G., Mann, M., Robinson, A., Rutherford, S., Schaffernicht, E. (2015): Evidence for an exceptional 20th-Century slowdown in Atlantic Ocean overturning, Nature Climate Change (online). DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2554.

Roberts, C. D., Jackson, L., McNeall, D. (2014): Is the 2004-2012 reduction of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation significant?, GRL, 41(9): 3204-210. DOI: 10.1002/2014GL059473.

Rossby, T., G. Reverdin, L. Chafik, H. Søiland (2017): A direct estimate of poleward volume, heat, and freshwater fluxes at 59.58N between Greenland and Scotland, 2017., J. Geophys. Res., 122: 5870-5887. DOI: 10.1002/2017JC012835.

Rougier, J. C (2005): Probabilistic Inference for Future Climate Using an Ensemble of Simulator Evaluations, Climatic Change. www.maths.dur.ac.uk/stats/people/jcr/CCrevisionA4.pdf


Sanderson, B.M., Knutti, R., Aina, T., Christensen, C., Faull, N., Frame, D. J., Ingram, W. J., Piani, C., Stainforth, D. A., Stone, D. A., Allen, M. R. (2008): Constraints on Model Response to Greenhouse Gas Forcing and the Role of Subgrid-Scale Processes, Journal of Climate, 21: 2384-2400. DOI: doi:10.1175/2008JCLI1869.1.

Schiermeier, Q (2013): Oceans under surveillance, Nature News, 497: 7448. On-line article

Schiermeier, Q (2014): Atlantic current strength declines, Nature News, 509: 7500. On-line article

Smith, D., R.P. Allan, A.C. Coward, R. Eade, P. Hyder, C.Liu, N.G. Loeb, M.D. Palmer, C.D. Roberts, A.A. Scaife (2015): Earth’s energy imbalance since 1960 in observations and CMIP5 models, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42: 1205–1213. DOI: 10.1002/2014GL062669.

Stanford, J.D., Rohling, E.J., Bacon, S., Holliday, N.P. (2011): A review of the deep and surface currents around Eirik Drift, south of Greenland: Comparison of the past with the present, Global and Planetary Change, 79: 244-254. DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2011.02.001.

Stanford, J.D., Hemingway, R., Rohling, E.J., Challenor, P.G., Medina-Elizalde, M., Lester, A.J. (2011): Sea-level probability for the last deglaciation: A statistical analysis of far-field records, Global and Planetary Change, 79: 193-203. DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2010.11.002.

Sutton, R.T.; McCarthy, G.D.; Robson, J.; Sinha, B.; Archibald, A.; Gray, L.J. (2018): Atlantic multi-decadal variability and the UK ACSIS programme, Bul. Am. Met. Soc., 99. DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0266.1.

Swingedouw, D., Braconnot, P., Delecluse, P., Guilyardi, E., Marti, O. (2007): Quantifying the AMOC feedbacks during a 2xCO(2) stabilization experiment with land-ice melting, Climate Dynamics, 29: 521-534. DOI: 10.1007/S00382-007-0250-0.


Taws, S.R., R. Marsh, N.C. Wells, J. Hirschi (2011): Re-emerging ocean temperature anomalies in late 2010 associated with a repeat negative NAO, Geophysical Research Letters, 8: L20601. DOI: 10.1029/2011GL048978.

Tindall, J. C., Valdesm P. J. (2011): Modeling the 8.2 ka event using a coupled atmosphere–ocean GCMC312-321, 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2011.02.004

Tokmakian, R., P. Challenor, and I Andrianakis (2012): On the Use of Emulators with Extreme and Highly Nonlinear Geophysical Simulators., Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, 29 (11): 1704-1715. DOI: 10.1175/JTECHD-11-00110.1.

Tokmakian, R., and P. Challenor (2014): Uncertainty in Modeled Upper Ocean Heat Content Change., Climate Dynamics, 42: 1-20. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-013-1709-9.


Weijer, W., Cheng, W., Drijfhout, S.S.,Federov, A.V., Hu, A., Jackson, L.C., Liu, W., McDonagh, E.L., Mecking, J.V., Zhang, J. (2019): Stability of the AtlanticMeridional Overturning Circulation:A review and synthesis, JGR Oceans, 124. DOI: 10.1029/2019JC015083.


Yashayaev, I., and J. W. Loder (2016): Recurrent replenishment of Labrador Sea Water and associated decadal-scale variability, J. Geophys. Res. Oceans, 121: 8095-8114. DOI: 10.1002/2016JC012046.

Yashayaev, I., and J.W. Loder (2017): Further intensification of deep convection in the Labrador Sea in 2016., Geophysical Research Letters, 44: 1429-1438. DOI: 10.1002/2016GL071668.


Zhang, R., Sutton, R., Danabasoglu, G., Kwon, Y.‐O., Marsh, R., Yeager, S.G., Amrhein, D.E., Little, C.M. (2019): A Review of the Role of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in Atlantic Multidecadal Variability and Associated Climate Impacts, Reviews of Geophysics, 57 (2): 316-375. DOI: 10.1029/2019RG000644.

Zhang,R., Delworth,T., Sutton,R., Hodson, D.L.R., Dixon, K.W., Held, I.M., Kushnir, Y., Marshall, J., Ming, Y., Msadek, R., Robson, J., Rosati, A.J., Ting, M.F., Vecchi, G.A. (2013): Have Aerosols Caused the Observed Atlantic Multidecadal Variability?, J.Atmos.Sci., 70(4): 1135-1144. DOI: 10.1175/JAS-D-12-0331.1.

Zou, S., Lozier, M. S. & Buckley, M. (2019): How is meridional coherence maintained in the lower limb of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation?, Geophysical Research Letters, 46: 244-252. DOI: 10.1029/2018GL080958.

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