RAPID Risk Assessment, Probability and Impacts Team

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Probability distribution of future MOC strength in the GENIE model compared to the current MOC from observations.

RAPIT is looking at the problem of estimating the risk of the collapse of the overturning circulation. Using modern statistical methods for the analysis of complex numerical models, large ensembles of two Atmosphere Ocean General Circulation Models (HADCM3 and CHIME) will be analysed.

Studies of large excursions of the strength of the overturning in existing control runs will be used to guide our choice of metrics and diagnostics. To produce the large number of model runs that are required for the statistical analysis, the climateprediction.net system will be used.